| PROJECTED SCORE | From points scored & allowed per game: home = (home scored + away allowed) ÷ 2 + half the home edge; away = (away scored + home allowed) ÷ 2 − half the home edge. Your own margin / total overrides it. |
| LOAD SLATE | Pulls the day's games and book spread / total / moneylines from ESPN. PREDICT ALL then reads every finished game this season and builds opponent-adjusted offence and defence ratings (who you scored on and who scored on you), so a team that ran up the score on cupcakes gets marked down. If that fails it falls back to plain season averages. Early-season numbers are pulled toward the league average (4-game weight) so a 3-0 team beating cupcakes doesn't look like a superteam. |
| RECO | The best 1–2 sides that clear the VALUE edge bar, else PASS. CHECK (orange) = the projection is more than 10 points off a college line (7 NFL, 8 NBA) — usually a soft schedule or FCS opponent the season averages can't see, so no bet is called. ATS / TOTAL / STRAIGHT UP leans show the more likely side even when there's no edge. |
| MODEL % | Chance from your projection. Spread / moneyline: Φ((margin + line) ÷ σ). Total: Φ((proj total − line) ÷ σ). σ = the sport's game-to-game spread (SETTINGS). |
| NO-VIG % | The book's two prices with the juice removed (each side's implied % ÷ the pair's total). |
| FAIR | Win % blended with the no-vig market (BOARD WEIGHT, default 50 = halfway between the projection and the market; 100 = projection only), shown as American odds. |
| EDGE | Win % × decimal price − 1. Green + = you're getting paid more than the true chance. |
| KELLY | Kelly fraction (default ¼) of your bankroll: (p × dec − 1) ÷ (dec − 1). |
| VERDICT | POUND = edge ≥ 6% and win ≥ 50% · VALUE = edge ≥ 3% · PASS otherwise (thresholds in SETTINGS). |
| RUNS TO PRICE | Type the OPEN spread / total. If the market moved toward a side, that side's projection moves with it by the RTP weight (½ by default) — the same idea as runs-to-price on the race board. |
| + TICKET | Adds that side to the parlay / teaser ticket. Ticket chance = each leg's win % multiplied; teaser legs are re-priced with the moved line. |
| DUTCH | Multi-outcome markets (futures, golf, MMA, NASCAR): stake split ∝ 1 ÷ odds so every pick returns the same; floor and $6 minimum profit like the race board. |
| LOG | Log any side as a bet, then mark W / L / P and the closing price → P&L, ROI and CLV (did you beat the close?). |